The Fermi Paradox is no Paradox
Writing a novel about an alien got me pondering about life in the universe. There was always something that bothered me and that was the Fermi Paradox. Thought I would share my take on it. Note, this is not my normal, creative content. Just something I wanted to share. Please enjoy.
The Milky Way Galaxy is 100,000 light years across. The Earth is 2/3rds (50k light years) from the center and 1/3rd (25K light years) from the edge.
Radio signals have been sent into space since 1962. Meaning our footprint is 62 light years. Remember, the Milky Way is 100,000 light years across. Unless another civilization is basically our next door neighbor, they don’t know we’re here.
What about older alien civilizations you ask? It’s a valid point so let’s dive in. Say there is a civilization tens of thousands of years older than Earth, but on the mirror side of the galaxy from us. Well, that would take a radio signal 50,000 years to reach us. Even if they’re 49,000 years ahead of us in technology, we wouldn’t see a signal for another thousand years.
The galaxy is 13.61 billion years old. It took 9.07 billion years for the Earth to form and another 4.54 billion years to develop life that could then send out a signal. Is it possible another civilization is far older and capable of sending signals that could have reached us? Certainly, but it’s not given. For all we know, 9 billion years for conditions to be suitable for life is the norm. Truth is, until we find life, we won’t know.
Outside of our galaxy: The nearest galaxies to us are the Andromeda Galaxy (2.54 million light years), Triangulum Galaxy (2.72 million light years), Messier 32 (2.51 million light years), Messier 33 (3 million light years), Messier 94 (15 million light years). These galaxies range from 3 to 13 billion years old. If they are working on the same time scale of 13 1/2 billion years to form life that could send a signal then we have a long time for the signal to reach us. But say they got an advanced species much earlier. It could be 2 million years ahead of us and we still wouldn’t see them yet.
The observable universe is 13.8 billion years old with an observable diameter of 93 billion light years. The universe is so large that damn near anyone in the scientific community will tell you that the odds of life being elsewhere are-well, astronomical. In comes Dr. Frank Drake in 1961 to provide an equation for how much life is in the universe. The equation is:
N=R∗×fp×ne×fℓ×fi×fc×L
N = the number of detectable civilizations in our galaxy.
R_* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.
f_p = the fraction of those stars that have planets.
n_e = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets.
f_ell = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life.
f_i = the fraction of planets with life that develop intelligent life.
f_c = the fraction of planets with intelligent life that develop technology that can release detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
Drake’s equation is not fundamentally wrong; however, we lack sufficient data to apply it. Thus, the estimated answers to the equation vary widely from perhaps 1 to uncountable numbers. Enter Fermi’s Paradox: Despite the vastness of the universe and the potential for the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, we have yet to detect any conclusive evidence of their existence, leading to the question of why we haven't encountered any signs of intelligent life beyond Earth. So, as Fermi put it, “Where is everyone?”.
There have been many potential solutions proposed for Fermis’ Paradox from the Dark Forest theory (They aren’t all friendly, so everyone is staying quiet) to the Rare Earth theory (Planets able to sustain life, such as Earth are rare). While some or all of these theories may turn out to be correct, I say the solution is simple, there is no paradox.
There is no paradox for the same reason that the scientific community almost universally agrees there is life elsewhere in the universe: the vastness of the universe. Consider that it takes 18 to 24 hours to travel from New York to New Zealand by plane. Compare that with the 3 days it takes a rocket, traveling much faster than a plane, to get to the Moon. Then understand the Moon is standing directly in front of us, astronomically speaking. In short, the universe is really freaking big!
Light travels at 300,000 kms per second. It still takes 8 seconds for light from the Sun to reach the Earth. Light has to travel 2.4 million kms to reach us from the star we are orbiting. That’s really fast, but it still takes 4 years for that same light to reach the next closest star. We are looking for alien life by studying electromagnetic signals (IE: Radio signals, optical signals, etc.) because as Einstein taught us, it’s the cosmic speed limit.
Using this method of detection, a civilization could be 12 billion years more advanced than we are yet be so far away that there would be no chance of detecting them. This isn’t a paradox, it’s impatience. If there is life more advanced as we are, they have either found away for faster than light (FLT) communication (Which some says is not possible and we don’t know how to detect), aren’t bothering with it due to the inefficiency of light travel to bring timely messages, or we need to be more patient.
There is also the fact that we may have already detected intelligent life and not know it. Our rigorous standards for claiming we have found life means we have to find irrefutable proof that life exists. Which is understandable, but doesn’t mean we haven’t observed life. There are examples of potential life discovered with only alternative theories that sometimes have even less evidence to support. We have to understand, we dismiss some sightings because something else, “May be” the result. Not something else is what we are observing, only the possibility that we are observing something other than life.
I understand why we have such high standards before confirming there is life. It’s just strange that the scientific community that says there must be life somewhere, is the same community that can’t seem to bring themselves to say, “This could be life, but we aren’t certain yet.”. Instead we tend to come up with an alternative theory, sometimes even without proof, and simply leave it at that. Then we ostracize anyone that argues otherwise.
The best theory put forth for Tabby’s star, is a Dyson Swarm. A Dyson Swarm is a swarm of structures around a star used to harness its energy. Yes, there have been alternative theories proposed and they have all been debunked, including the dust theory. Does this mean it is a Dyson Swarm? No, it simply means we don’t know what it is and further research is required once we have a better means of observation.
The best theory for Oumuamua (The first interstellar object observed in our solar system that accelerated when it left) is that it was an artificial, cylinder shaped object, that was powered by some energy source (currently argued a solar sail). All other theories, so far, have been debunked.
Planet j1407b has something around it that stretches for 120 million kilometers. We talk about it as a ring system but we don’t actually know what it is. This could easily be an artificial structure. The simple truth is, we don’t have the means to determine yet.
Fermi’s Paradox is not a paradox. It is a combination of the vastness of the universe and our inability to determine if we have observed life yet. The fact of the matter is, while we have made great advancements in observing the universe, we have a long way to go still. For now life elsewhere in the universe is clouded in an unknowns.
